The ISW said whether mobilization in the Russian Federation will affect the course of the war in the coming months

The ISW said whether mobilization in the Russian Federation will affect the course of the war in the coming months
The ISW said whether mobilization in the Russian Federation will affect the course of the war in the coming months

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization showed many problems that Russia is facing during its failed invasion of Ukraine. Moscow is unlikely to be able to solve them in the coming months,” experts emphasize.

And the order to mobilize a part of the “prepared” reserve of the Russian Federation, that is, people who have completed their military service, will not create a significant fighting force of Russia within months.

“This may be enough only to maintain the current level of Russian military strength in 2023, compensating for losses, although even that is not yet clear,” ISW says.

As noted, partial mobilization by Russia will not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate most of the occupied territory before winter.

“Putin and Shoigu strongly stated that only reservists who had completed their initial military service would be mobilized, making it clear that Russia would not expand conscription. Shoigu also said that students would not be harmed and told them to go about their studies without worry. These comments were clearly intended to aims to dispel the fears of the Russian population that “partial mobilization” is a code for general conscription,” the message reads.

The Russian military probably called up the most combat-ready reserves during the pre-war mobilization, suggesting that the current partial mobilization will begin with less combat-ready personnel from the start, analysts say.

“Russian reservists are initially poorly trained and do not undergo advanced training after their conscription period. Russian conscription lasts only one year, giving conscripts little time to learn to be soldiers. The lack of retraining after this initial period accelerates the degradation of acquired soldiering skills from Shoigu spoke about the intention to call up reservists with “combat experience”, but very few Russian reservists, except for those who are currently serving in Ukraine, have combat experience,” the Institute emphasizes.

Other key ISW findings

  • Putin did not directly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counteroffensive operations to liberate occupied territories after Russian annexation

  • Probably, the Ukrainian troops continued their offensive actions around the Liman

  • Ukrainian forces struck north and east of Kherson as part of a campaign to block Russian logistical, military and transport vehicles in the Kherson region

  • Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three zones of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson, near the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Ingulets River, and south of the border of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk region around Visokopil

  • Subjects of the Russian Federation (regions) continue cryptomobilization, despite the statement of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin about partial mobilization

  • Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely to increase law enforcement and filtering measures in the occupied territories of Ukraine in preparation for mock referendums

On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization in the Russian Federation. Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the NSDC, called Putin’s statement on partial mobilization “a comprehensive program for the disposal of Russians.” And the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyi said that all those who come to Ukraine with weapons will be destroyed.

In turn, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is convinced that Putin’s latest steps require new sanctions from the EU.

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The article is in Ukrainian

Tags: ISW mobilization Russian Federation affect war coming months

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