He emphasized that the time factor has its considerable influence, since mobilization, like any state-level process, first of all requires time.
“Minimum experience, organizational efforts, and corruption on the ground must play their role. Obviously, the recent proposals to strengthen criminal liability for evasion of the draft in wartime were submitted to the State Duma of the Russian Federation for consideration at all by chance,” Zabrodsky pointed out.
According to him, since there is no reason to suspect Russian reservists of “excessive enthusiasm”, then the procedure of notification, collection and sending to military units may require at least one or two months.
“Subject to the implementation of the minimum necessary it will take at least one more month to prepare the mobilized. In the general operational plan, this means that the Russian command can count on the practical results of the mobilization no earlier than December of this year“, Zabrodsky believes.
He concluded that this term can be shortened by emergency measures and neglect of preparation, but it is absolutely clear that partial mobilization in the near future is unlikely to affect the situation on the front line.
We will remind that on September 21, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization in the Russian Federation. According to the Ministry of Defense of the country, it is planned to throw 300 thousand reservists into the war in Ukraine.
It should be noted that military expert Vladyslav Seleznyov explained in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine that the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia will not significantly affect the course of its war against Ukraine.
At the same time, the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Vadym Denisenko, believes that during the first wave of mobilization in Russia, a maximum of 40,000-50,000 troops can be gathered.